Monthly Comment – November 2025
November was marked by increased volatility, with pronounced mid-month declines led by the US tech sector, followed by a strong recovery towards the end. In Sweden, inflation came in slightly higher than expected, while Q3 reports continued to surprise on the upside, confirming a gradual recovery — a picture further supported by improved GDP figures. The ECB left interest rates unchanged, while market expectations for the Federal Reserve shifted from an unchanged rate to a higher likelihood of a cut at the December meeting. In the US, the debt-ceiling issue was temporarily resolved, initially triggering a relief rally, which was later followed by some profit-taking and a stronger USD. Amazon continued its efficiency measures through automation and AI, while tech giants like Nvidia reported strong results, providing support to the tech sector. China continues to grow, but largely through price pressure, contributing to weaker profitability and increased global competition. The latest agreement between China and the US provides some breathing space but does not alter the long-term trend of ongoing trade tensions. The discussion about the dollar’s future role as the world’s reserve currency has intensified, but despite efforts by several actors — particularly China — to promote alternatives, the USD’s dominance is expected to remain for the foreseeable future.